Currency value

Say the exchange rate for USD/JPY is 1:1.  The cost of one shirt is 1000 yen in Japan and 50 dollars in U.S.A.  There is arbitrage opportunity.  Investors will sell their yen and buy dollars, go to the states and buy the shirt which cost 50 bucks and sell it back to Japan for 1000 yen, the cost in yen terms is only 50, so the profit is 950.  If everyone starts to do this and there will be upward pressure for the dollar and if the government defend its value, then the currency value will be determined by the open market which will see the USD appreciate and Yen depreciate.  So overtime, the market value is determined by supply/demand, inflation and other economic factors.

Correction vs Reversal

It is very hard to predict if the market is heading towards a correction or reversal.  Although they all head toward the same direction, but corrections does not test the previous high/low level and lead to continuation whereas reversals will penetrate the previous high/low decidedly changing the current trend.  It’s challenging to make a call, because it looks like flipping a coin.  You only have 50% chance of winning.  The only thing you can do is to come up with a few clues in favor of your conclusion and then monitor any changes.  The hard truth is that you will have to accept losses even all of your signals point to the same conclusion and still fail.

御街行 – 秋日怀旧

作者:范仲淹

纷纷坠叶飘香砌,夜寂静,寒声碎。

真珠帘卷玉楼空,天淡银河垂地。

年年今夜,月华如练,长是人千里。

愁肠已断无由醉,酒未到,先成泪。

残灯明灭枕头欹,谙尽孤眠滋味。

都来此事,眉间心上,无计相回避。

注解: 香砌(台阶),玉楼空(空满楼),月华(月亮),练(洁白的丝绸),无由醉(酒都不能醉),残灯明灭(明月比残灯还亮),谙尽(尝尽),都来(算来),眉间心上(先上眉间,后上心头),无计(没法)。

苏幕遮 – 怀旧

作者: 范仲淹

碧云天, 黄叶地。 秋色连波, 波上寒烟翠。

山映斜阳天接水。 芳草无情,更在斜阳外。

黯乡魂,追旅思。 夜夜除非,好梦留人睡。

明月楼高休独倚。 酒入愁肠,化作相思泪。

注解: 碧云天(蓝天嵌缀着白云),黄叶地(满地的落叶),寒烟翠(烟雾),天接水(天和江水连在一起),芳草(绿草),斜阳外(在夕阳照不到的地方),黯乡魂(思乡的愁苦),追旅思(旅途上的忧思),休独倚(不能自己呆着),酒入愁肠,相思泪(喝了酒更想家了)。

渔家傲 – 秋思

作者: 范仲淹

塞下秋来风景异,衡阳雁去无留意。 四面边声连角起,千嶂里,长烟落日孤城闭。

浊酒一杯家万里,燕然未勒无轨迹。羌管悠悠霜满地,人不寐, 将军白发征夫泪。

注解: 塞下(边境),衡阳雁去(大雁到衡阳就不往南飞了),边声(边塞独特的声音),千嶂里(层层群山),燕然未勒(没立下功勋),羌管(边塞的一种乐器),不寐(睡不着觉)。